International Scientific and Practical Symposium The Future of the Construction industry: Challenges and Development Prospects organised by Moscow State University of Civil Engineering. Moscow, Russia.
STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF STEEL ELEMENTS WITH INTERVAL UNCERTAINTY OF DATA
Authors:
Sergey Solovev,Evgeniy Ilichev,Anastasia Soloveva,DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26782/jmcms.spl.13/2026.05.00001Abstract:
The paper presents an approach for structural reliability analysis of steel elements in cases of interval uncertainty of sample data. It is shown that epistemic uncertainty plays an important role in practical structural reliability analysis tasks, and this uncertainty must be effectively modeled, usually in the form of intervals. The p-box (probability box) is a suitable mathematical model for describing the strength of steel as a random variable during non-destructive testing of existing structures. An effective method of reliability analysis is the Interval Monte Carlo Simulation (IMCS) in the presence of random variables with mixed interval uncertainty. As a result, structural reliability will be expressed as a failure probability interval. If the range of failure probabilities turns out to be too wide or uninformative for decision-making, it is necessary to reduce epistemic uncertainty (collect additional data to narrow the intervals) or increase the area of the cross-sections for the structural elements.Keywords:
Structural Reliability,Failure Probability,Interval Uncertainty,Steel Structures,Safety,Reliability Index,Refference:
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