## MODIFIED SIRD MODEL OF EPIDEMIC DISEASE DYNAMICS: A CASE STUDY OF THE COVID-19 CORONAVIRUS

#### Authors:

Asish Mitra#### DOI NO:

https://doi.org/10.26782/jmcms.2021.02.00001#### Abstract:

*The present study shows that a simple epidemiological model can*

*reproduce the real data accurately. It demonstrates indisputably that the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak can be explained by the modified version of the*

*compartmental epidemiological framework Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Dead (SIRD)*

*model. The parameters of this model can be standardized using prior knowledge.*

*However, o*

*ut of several time-series data available on several websites, only the number of dead individuals (D(t)) can be regarded as a more reliable representation of the course of the epidemic. Therefore it is wise to convert all the equations of the SIRD Model into a single one in terms of D(t).*

*This modified SIRD model is now able to give reliable forecasts and conveys relevant information compared to more complex models.*

#### Keywords:

COVID-19,Epidemic Disease,Modified SIRD Model,Parameter Estimation,#### Refference:

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