Asish Mitra,



COVID-19,Epidemic Disease,Modified SIRD Model,Parameter Estimation,


          The present study shows that a simple epidemiological model can reproduce the real data accurately. It demonstrates indisputably that the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak can be explained by the modified version of the compartmental epidemiological framework Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Dead (SIRD) model. The parameters of this model can be standardized using prior knowledge. However, out of several time-series data available on several websites, only the number of dead individuals (D(t)) can be regarded as a more reliable representation of the course of the epidemic. Therefore it is wise to convert all the equations of the SIRD Model into a single one in terms of D(t). This modified SIRD model is now able to give reliable forecasts and conveys relevant information compared to more complex models.


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