Muhammad Ali,Syed Asif Ali,Muhammad Jawed Iqbal,Zohaib Aziz,Bulbul Jan,



Extreme Rainfall,Bayesian approach,Return period,Return levels,


It has been observed that the extreme rainfall is anunusual and very essential hydrological parameter therefore probabilistic modeling is important for the analysis of such extreme weather events. Extreme rainfall analysis has much importance for a civil engineer and planning division of a country to take into account the capability of building structures for extreme weather conditions. To understand the extreme behavior of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa we use yearly maximum rainfall of four major cities of this province from 1960 to 2010. In this study, we have estimated the parameters of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution by using Bayesian approach. The Akaike Information Criteria and Acceptance Rate are used to check the reliability of the model. After getting ensured the reliability we find return levels against different return periods (10, 25, 50, 75 and 100 years) of Meteorological stations Peshawar, Dir, Parachinar and D I Khan of KPK province of Pakistan. Our result will be useful for policy makers, civil engineers, planning division, agricultural departments and research scholars, formers for irrigation system and civil society of KPK, Pakistan for precautionary measures.


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