Mortality Trends of Male Elderly in Malaysia: Comparison between Lee-Carter model and Heligman-Pollard model

Authors:

R.I.Ibrahim,N.Ngataman,W.N.A.Wan MohdAbrisam,

DOI NO:

https://doi.org/10.26782/jmcms.2019.03.00076

Keywords:

MortalityTrends,Lee-CarterModel,Heligman-PollardModel,Elderly,

Abstract

Human life expectancies have shown remarkable improvement and this leads to significant reductions in mortality rates across all age groups, genders and countries. In Malaysia, mortality rates have been declined significantly due to the increases of life expectancies of an individual. Thus the proportion of the elderly in Malaysia is increasing. This study examines the mortality trends for male elderly of age group 60-64, 65-69, 70-74 and 75-79. The mortality trends analysis is done by discussing the pattern of mortality rate for the past 35 years period and 10 upcoming years resulted from Lee-Carter Model and Heligman-Pollard Model. Since these models involves nonlinear equations that are explicitly difficult to solve, the Matrix Laboratory (MATLAB) software will be used to estimate the parameters of the models. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) procedure is applied to acquire the forecasted parameters for both models as the forecasted mortality rates are obtained by using all the values of forecasted parameters. It was found that the declining trend of mortality in each age group although there is a fluctuation along the past 35 years. However, the estimated mortality rates for both mortality models move along with the actual rate.

Refference:

I.Samad et al.,Population Ageing and Social Protection in Malaysia, Malaysia: University of Malaya(2013).

II.M. Noret al.,Conf. Proc. of Int. Conf. on Emerging Trends in Scientific Research (2014), 332-341.

III.S. Haberman,Mortality, Longevity and Experiments with Lee-Carter Model,London: Cass Business School, City University(2008).

IV.R. D. Lee and L. R. Carter, Modeling and Forecasting U. S. Mortality, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87, 419 (1992). 659-671

V.L. Heligman andJ.H.Pollard,The Age Pattern of Mortality, Journal of the Institute of Actuaries, 107, Part 1(1980), 49–80.

VI.Ibrahim et al,Forecasting the mortality rates using Lee-Carter model and Heligman-Pollard model, Journal ofPhys.: Conf. Ser. 890012128 (2017),1-5.

VII.R. I. Ibrahim,Expanding an Abridged Life Table Using the Heligman-Pollard Model, Matematika24 (2008), 1-10.

View | Download