Mortality Trends of Male Elderly in Malaysia: Comparison between Lee-Carter model and Heligman-Pollard model


R.I.Ibrahim,N.Ngataman,W.N.A.Wan MohdAbrisam,





Human life expectancies have shown remarkable improvement and this leads to significant reductions in mortality rates across all age groups, genders and countries. In Malaysia, mortality rates have been declined significantly due to the increases of life expectancies of an individual. Thus the proportion of the elderly in Malaysia is increasing. This study examines the mortality trends for male elderly of age group 60-64, 65-69, 70-74 and 75-79. The mortality trends analysis is done by discussing the pattern of mortality rate for the past 35 years period and 10 upcoming years resulted from Lee-Carter Model and Heligman-Pollard Model. Since these models involves nonlinear equations that are explicitly difficult to solve, the Matrix Laboratory (MATLAB) software will be used to estimate the parameters of the models. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) procedure is applied to acquire the forecasted parameters for both models as the forecasted mortality rates are obtained by using all the values of forecasted parameters. It was found that the declining trend of mortality in each age group although there is a fluctuation along the past 35 years. However, the estimated mortality rates for both mortality models move along with the actual rate.


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