Andrey V. Parinov,Alexander G. Ostapenko,Oleg N. Choporov,Konstantin A. Razinkin,Andrey Yu. Savinkov,



Social network,epidemic,micromodels of the epidemic process,microfractal,


In this paper, the micromodels of processes infection with the social networks users content as well as users in the process of two contents conflicting have been substantiated. The methodological support is suggested for epidemic risk analysis of social networks. The methodological approach is based on the probabilistic representation of the user's infection process, where its different states takes place during the content perception. For the assessment of the values of the transition probabilities between these states, the results of statistical studies obtained for networks were used : communication, media-content exchange, reviews and insights, group discussions, authors' accounts, social bookmarkings, according to interests. Moreover, the topics of content were taken into account: music, food, scenery, people, goods, restaurant, tickets, stocks, health, nuclear weapons, war, business, society, cooperation, etc. In addition, there was a recalculation in conditional probabilities when considering the problem of collision of competing contents, including the specifics of social network analysis from the point of view of risk assessment of the spreading the destructive content and the user's chances to perceive positive information. This approach actually considers the situations being relevant to network confrontation when there is a collision of competing contents in the network, and their diffusion takes place under influence of the conditional probabilities of the   network vertex transition into one or other  state of perception of these contents. In this regard, the models taking into account the loss and retention of immunity in relation to the impacted contents were considered . At the same time, the model of contents confrontation offered in the paper is arised from the capabilities of multiple states of network vertex. For this purpose, the appropriate analytical expressions for conditional probabilities of transition from the state to the state of network user have been obtained. To discuss the possible practical application of the proposed methodology,  this paper considers the analytical assessment of risks and chances of content diffusion in the network  This approach is based on the weighting of the network elements, where their  specific traffics are logically used, easily computed from these publicly available social networks. The weighted sets of infected and other vertices characterize in this case the results of the epidemic process at its different stages. The corresponding analytic expressions are also suggested for the case of several contents collision in a network.


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