PRODUCTION FORECAST IN MSME USING MACROECONOMIC INPUT – AN ANFIS MODEL
Authors:
Sushanta Sengupta, Chinmoy JanaDOI NO:
https://doi.org/10.26782/jmcms.2026.05.00007Abstract:
Over the past few decades, the Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) sector has emerged as a dynamic and vibrant component of the economy of India. A pivotal role is being played by MSMEs to generate noteworthy prospects in employment with relatively lower capital investment compared to large industries, while also contributing to the development of rural and underdeveloped areas. Macroeconomics plays a central role in understanding the dynamics of national and global economies by analyzing aggregate indicators such as GDP (Gross Domestic Product), inflation, unemployment, and interest rates. This research attempts to predict the MSME production based on the Macroeconomic fuzzy input variables using the ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference) model. The time series data, such as GDP Per Capita (at constant price), Repo Rate, CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio), and CPI (Consumer Price Index), are considered as macroeconomic input variables, and the output variable is MSME Production (at constant price) for the last 20 years. The paper compares the actual value of MSME production with the ANFIS outcome and the prediction accuracy of the output variable between the same membership function (MF) usage for all the input variables and different MF usage of the input variables, with a linear output MF being observed. The prediction accuracy obtained in the latter case overcomes the prediction accuracy of the former. Accurate prediction of MSME production volume using macroeconomic variables helps policymakers envision industrial activity and design sensible fiscal and monetary measures to alleviate growth and support the MSME sector.Keywords:
ANFIS,MSME,GDP,CRR,Repo Rate,CPI,References:
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