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PRODUCTION FORECAST IN MSME USING MACROECONOMIC INPUT – AN ANFIS MODEL

Authors:

Sushanta Sengupta, Chinmoy Jana

DOI NO:

https://doi.org/10.26782/jmcms.2026.05.00007

Abstract:

Over the past few decades, the Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) sector has emerged as a dynamic and vibrant component of the economy of India. A pivotal role is being played by MSMEs to generate noteworthy prospects in employment with relatively lower capital investment compared to large industries, while also contributing to the development of rural and underdeveloped areas. Macroeconomics plays a central role in understanding the dynamics of national and global economies by analyzing aggregate indicators such as GDP (Gross Domestic Product), inflation, unemployment, and interest rates. This research attempts to predict the MSME production based on the Macroeconomic fuzzy input variables using the ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference) model. The time series data, such as GDP Per Capita (at constant price), Repo Rate, CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio), and CPI (Consumer Price Index), are considered as macroeconomic input variables, and the output variable is MSME Production (at constant price) for the last 20 years. The paper compares the actual value of MSME production with the ANFIS outcome and the prediction accuracy of the output variable between the same membership function (MF) usage for all the input variables and different MF usage of the input variables, with a linear output MF being observed. The prediction accuracy obtained in the latter case overcomes the prediction accuracy of the former. Accurate prediction of MSME production volume using macroeconomic variables helps policymakers envision industrial activity and design sensible fiscal and monetary measures to alleviate growth and support the MSME sector.

Keywords:

ANFIS,MSME,GDP,CRR,Repo Rate,CPI,

References:

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V. Jovic S, Milutinovic J S, Micic R, Markovic S, Rakic G. “Analyzing of Exchange Rate and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS).” vol. S0378, no. 4371, 2018, pp. 31133-31136. 10.1016/j.physa.2018.09.009

VI. Khanna R, Singh S P. “Status of MSMEs in India: A detailed Study.” Journal of Applied Management – Jidnyasa, vol. 10, no.2, 2018, pp. 1-14.

VII. Melin P, Soto J, Castillo O, Soria J. “A new approach for time series prediction using ensembles of ANFIS models.” Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 39, 2012, pp. 3494-3506. 10.1016/j.eswa.2011.09.040

VIII. Palaka S, Das S. “Growth and Elasticity of output of MSMEs in India.” Research Square, 2021, pp. 1-16. 10.21203/rs.3.rs-36142/v2

IX. Patel S K, Tripathy R. “Challenges of MSMEs in India.” Journal of Positive School Psychology, vol. 6, no. 6, 2022, pp. 1-23.

X. Petkovic J, Petrovic N, Dragovic I, Stanojevic K, Radakovic J A, Borojevic T, Borstnar M K. “Youth and forecasting of sustainable development pillars: An adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system approach.” PLoS One, 2019, pp. 1-25. 10.1371/journal.pone.0218855

XI. Raharaja M A, Darmawan I D M B A, Nilakusumawati D P E, Supriana I W. “Analysis of Membership Function in implementation of adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) method for inflation prediction.” Vol. 1722, no. 012005, 2021. 10.1088/1742-6596/1722/1/012005

XII. Rawat M. “Factors affecting the growth and development of MSME sector in India: An opinion survey of start-ups.” Mathematical Statistical and Engineering Applications, vol. 68, no. 1, 2019, pp. 230-236. 10.17762/msea.v68i1.2177

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A HIGH STEP-UP COUPLED INDUCTOR DC-DC CONVERTER FOR GRID CONNECTED SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS

Authors:

Biswamoy Pal, Milan Sasmal, Partha Das, Anik Kar, Shib Sankar Saha Sudip Das

DOI NO:

https://doi.org/10.26782/jmcms.2026.05.00008

Abstract:

This paper presents a coupled inductor-based high-gain DC-DC converter. The proposed topology achieves high step-up conversion and reduced voltage stress of the switch and output diode. The leakage energy is recycled effectively to improve converter efficiency. Moreover, huge turn-off voltage spikes of the switch caused by the leakage inductor are completely eliminated. Besides, all the diodes, except the output diode, turn off softly, eliminating the reverse recovery problem. The operating principle of the converter in continuous conduction mode (CCM) is presented. The voltage gain characteristics, CCM-DCM boundary operation, and parameter design guidelines have been elaborated. A comparison analysis with similar converters has also been presented. Finally, the theoretical analysis has been verified through a simulation study in orcad pspice software. The simulation results are found to be in close agreement with the theoretical calculations.

Keywords:

Boost converter,continuous conduction mode (CCM),coupled Inductor,discontinuous conduction mode (DCM),solar photovoltaic (SPV),zero current switching (ZCS).,

References:

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IMPACT OF TUMOUR GRADE AND INDIVIDUAL HETEROGENEITY ON BREAST CANCER SURVIVAL: A RELATIVE TIME TO EVENT INDEX-FRAILTY APPROACH

Authors:

Selvam N., Lakshmanan Babu, Shaik Fayaz Ahamed, Ponnuraja Chinnaiyan

DOI NO:

https://doi.org/10.26782/jmcms.2026.05.00009

Abstract:

Background: Breast cancer survival is influenced by multiple clinical and pathological factors, and appropriate modelling is required to obtain reliable prognostic estimates while accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. Methodology: A population-based retrospective survival analysis was conducted among women diagnosed with primary breast cancer. Survival time from diagnosis to death or event was analysed using proportional hazards (PH) and accelerated failure time (AFT) models across multiple parametric distributions. Shared gamma frailty models were fitted at the age-group level to account for unobserved heterogeneity. Results: Higher tumour grade and lymph node ratio (LNR) were the strongest predictors of poor survival. Compared with grade 1 tumours, grade 3 tumours were associated with substantially shorter survival times (time ratio ?0.55 – 0.59) and increased hazard (hazard ratio ?1.8 - 1.9). Patients with LNR > 0.68 experienced markedly earlier events (time ratio ? 0.33 – 0.38) and higher hazard (hazard ratio ? 3.1). Advanced age showed the largest adverse effect, with patients older than 78.5 years experiencing events approximately three to four times earlier (time ratio ? 0.26 – 0.29). Hormone receptor-negative tumours were associated with reduced survival (time ratio ? 0.71 – 0.86). Flexible AFT models, particularly the generalized gamma distribution, demonstrated superior fit. Frailty modelling revealed moderate unobserved heterogeneity (?? 0.30), with attenuation of effect sizes but preserved inference. Conclusion: Key prognostic factors for breast cancer survival remained robust across modelling frameworks and after accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. The combined use of PH, AFT, and frailty models provides clinically interpretable and reliable survival estimates

Keywords:

Survival analysis,Cox model,Frailty model,Breast cancer,Tumour grade,Heterogeneity,

References:

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VI. Dou, He, et al. "Estrogen receptor-negative/progesterone receptor-positive breast cancer has distinct characteristics and pathologic complete response rate after neoadjuvant chemotherapy." Diagnostic Pathology 19.1 (2024): 5. 10.1186/s13000-023-01433-6
VII. Duchateau, Luc, and Paul Janssen. The frailty model. New York, NY: Springer New York, 2008. 10.1007/978-0-387-72835-3_4
VIII. Duchateau, Luc, Paul Janssen, and Steven Abrams. "Frailty Model, The." International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2025. 982-992. 10.1007/978-3-662-69359-9_694
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XII. Gorfine, Malka, and David M. Zucker. "Shared frailty methods for complex survival data: a review of recent advances." Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application 10.1 (2023): 51-73. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-statistics-032921-021310
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CENTURY PROJECTION OF BANGLADESH’S POPULATION: GROWTH PATTERNS AND IMMIGRATION EFFECTS

Authors:

Nasrin Nahar Rimu, Md. Antajul, Islam, Rezaul Karim, Nasir Uddin, Sanjida Akter, Mst. Halima Binte Mukul, Adham Abhi, Sharmin Sultana, Pinakee Dey

DOI NO:

https://doi.org/10.26782/jmcms.2026.05.00010

Abstract:

This paper will consider the demographic trend of Bangladesh using population data from 1975 to 2020 in 5-year blocks and annual immigration data from 2000 to 2020, and extrapolating the data to 2100. Several growth models were used to represent nonlinear growth trends and measure the extent to which the post-2000 immigration has changed the demographic momentum. The findings indicate that there is a long-term population growth moving to a slower yet consistent increase with immigration as a secondary source of acceleration, especially in urban areas. It is estimated that with the combined effect of natural growth and ongoing immigration, Bangladesh may be at the borderline of having a much higher population density by the year 2100, with the strain on urban infrastructure, labor markets, and resource systems. The combined view gives a better glimpse of the relationship between internal growth and external inflows in the development of future demographics in the country.

Keywords:

Demographic trend,Immigration data,Growth models,Long-term population,Future demographics,

References:

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XI. P. Dey et al., “SOUTH ASIAN DEMOGRAPHY: A NOVEL INSIGHT ON GROWTH RATE ACROSS THREE NATIONS,” Journal of Mechanics of Continua and Mathematical Sciences, vol. 20, no. 10, pp. 174–199, October 2025. 10.26782/jmcms.2025.10.00011.
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HYBRID DECISION-MAKING IN FLOW SHOP SCHEDULING: CONTRASTING BB AND NEH WITH INTERVAL VALUED INTUITIONISTIC FUZZY DATA

Authors:

Rajvinder Kaur, Deepak Gupta, Sonia Goel

DOI NO:

https://doi.org/10.26782/jmcms.2026.05.00011

Abstract:

Scheduling problems represent a core challenge in the efficient management of industrial and service operations. Due to their structural complexity and significant practical relevance in both manufacturing and service sectors, Hybrid Flow Shop Scheduling Problems (HFSSPs) are widely recognized as NP-hard. Scheduling in contemporary manufacturing and production systems sometimes entails ambiguous and uncertain information, rendering classical deterministic methods less efficacious. This work presents a novel comparative analysis of the exact method Branch and Bound (BB) and heuristic algorithm Nawaz, Enscore, and Ham (NEH) for addressing the hybrid flow shop scheduling problem (HFSSP), where processing times are articulated via Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets (IVIFS). A ranking and scoring algorithm is utilised to convert IVIFS data into computationally manageable values, facilitating integration with BB and NEH methodologies. The results offer valuable insights for scheduling in uncertain and imprecise production environments, demonstrating how hybrid decision-making strategies that combine exact and heuristic methods can lead to more effective solutions.

Keywords:

Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets,Hybrid Flow Shop Scheduling,Score Function,Makespan,

References:

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GRAPH-BASED SYMPTOM CENTRALITY IN MENTAL HEALTH NETWORKS: A NOVEL APPROACH WITH THE DYNAMIC WEIGHTED CENTRALITY IN HYSTERETIC SYMPTOM NETWORKS (DWCHSN) ALGORITHM

Authors:

Pharsana Parveen M., Stanis Arul Mary A.

DOI NO:

https://doi.org/10.26782/jmcms.2026.05.00012

Abstract:

This study addresses a significant gap in mental health research by developing a computational algorithm that goes beyond existing traditional symptom analysis. Instead of treating mental health symptoms as isolated phenomena, we created a methodology that captures their complex interconnected nature. We developed the Dynamic Weighted Centrality Hysteresis Symptoms Network Algorithm (DWCHSN), which applies concepts in network science to mental health symptomology. The DWCHSN algorithm effectively detects and ranks symptoms based on their centrality and influence that collectively capture how symptoms activate, spread, self-reinforce, persist, and respond to intervention within the network. This helps clinicians in setting treatment priorities by identifying the symptoms that are important catalysts. Our algorithm connects theoretical psychopathology models with clinical practice, unlike conventional diagnostic frameworks that list symptoms without considering their relationships.

Keywords:

Graph-Theoretic Modeling,Dynamic Centrality,Symptom Networks,Mental Health,Hysteresis,

References:

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