Md. Salauddin Khan,Masudul Islam,Md. Rasel Kabir,Lasker Ershad Ali,





Bangladesh bureau of statistics (BBS) publish a statistical year book in every year where comprehensive and systematic summary of basic statistical information of Bangladesh covering wide range of fields. BBS also forecast different sectors such aseconomics, weather, agriculture etc in different time in this country. In this paper wemainly concern on the wheat, rice and maize foodgrain which plays a vital role ineconomic development of Bangladesh. The main purposes of this paper as to comparewhich techniques are better BBS’s or statistical techniques for forecasting. There aredifferent forecasting models are available in statistics among these we used Auto regressive (AR), Moving Average(MA), Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)and Auto regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. For this reason, weclarify the stationary and non-stationary series by graphical method. On the basis of that,the stationary model is being set up asthe forecasting purpose. After analyze, we compare the forecasting result of our selective foodgrain and find that forecasted valuesusing statistical techniques are nearest to the actual values compare to BBS’s project edvalues.


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Author(s): Debargha Chakraborty, Binanda Kishore Mondal, Souvik Chatterjee, Sudipta Ghosh View Download